Market Intelligence firm Counterpoint is estimating a 20-25% drop in November and further decline in December. Month-on-month sales is usually down straight after Diwali, but the downside this year could be sharper given that peak demand in the lead up to the festival was the highest ever, analysts say.
“September usually records the highest shipments as brands begin stocking up for festive sales. But after Diwali sales there is an immediate drop which is close to 20-25%,” said Tarun Pathak, research director at Counterpoint.
Re-commerce firm Cashify said that in November, business is already at a third of its peak which was the second day of Flipkart’s Big Billion festival in October. “The general trend in the festive season is that the Diwali sales, backed by discounts and deals, witnesses 2-3 times of usual business and an equal drop immediately after Diwali, and the next month the demand normalises,” said Ashwini Bhadoria, VP – Exchange Programs & Alliances, Cashify. “So talking about Cashify, right now, we are at one-third of business of our peak days, which was the second day of the Flipkart Big Billion Sale,” he said
Top brands including Xiaomi, Vivo and Realme have all reported their highest ever Diwali sales this season while Apple recorded its highest ever shipments in the July-September period even before the launch of its flagship.
“Mainline retailers were anyway witnessing Black Diwali this year with sales having declined by 50%. October was the worst month for us, there was some pick up in November because of Diwali but now its again heading towards the worst,” said Arvinder Khurana, President of mobile retailers association which represents 150,000 stores pan-India.
He said that the biased support of smartphone brands, who are channeling stocks to Amazon and Flipkart is the reason for a 50% drop and even banks are responsible, having given 10% instant cashback exclusively to e-tailers.