In a major blow to the party, the prime minister’s own seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip would likely fall to Labour control, with current results suggesting a 5 point Labour lead over the Conservatives.
According to latest YouGov modelling, of the 88 seats which Boris Johnson’s party either won from Labour in 2019 or currently hold with a slim majority, the Tories would only manage to retain its control of Ashfield, Bassetlaw, and Dudley North.
It follows a dire result for Mr Johnson in this year’s local election, which saw voters move against the Conservatives in the PM’s seat – instead electing three Labour councillors across 21 seats in eight wards.
With the Sue Gray report, cost of living crisis, Northern Ireland protocol and snowballing allegations of sexual and financial misconduct looming large over the government, the picture looks even more bleak for the Tories in Wales.
Of the seats classed by YouGov as battleground, all would be lost, including one to Plaid Cymru in Ynys Mon. The remaining eight constituencies include the former Labour strongholds of Wrexham, Bridgend, and Delyn.
The poll also suggests Wakefield would return to Labour hands ahead of the upcoming by-election on 23 June, triggered by the resignation of disgraced Tory MP Imran Ahmad Khan, who was recently charged with sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy.
Were an election held tomorrow, Labour would also be likely to take back control of a number of its former ‘Red Wall’ seats, including Burnley, Blyth Valley, Leigh, and Stoke-on-Trent North.
YouGov also found every seat in London and the South under the ‘battleground’ definition would fall to Labour, including Iain Duncan-Smith’s constituency of Chingford and Woodford Green and Steve Baker’s seat in Wycombe.
It comes after May’s local election saw the key Tory councils of Wandsworth – reputedly Margaret Thatcher’s favourite – and Westminster, Tory since it was created in 1964, fall into Labour hands.
At the time, leader of the opposition Sir Keir Starmer declared the results as a major “turning point” for his party.
But the poll did find that the Tory vote would hold up better in general in battleground constituencies in the North East and East Midlands (-11 points) than it does in the South (-14 points) or East of England (-13 points), with each of the three Conservative holds under this modelling coming in the Midlands.
Battleground constituencies were defined as ones were the Conservatives had either won from Labour in 2019, or currently hold with a majority of less than 15 points over Labour.
YouGov surveyed 15,045 voters across England between 19-27 May, and 2,086 voters in Wales between 28 April and 27 May.